An Air Quality Modeling System Providing Smoke Impact Forecasts for Health Protection in Southeastern U.S.A

摘要

Background/Aim Prescribed fire is the leading source of PM2.5 emissions in southeastern USA. We are developing the HiRes-X modeling system to forecast prescribed fire activity and its impacts on air quality and human health, and the Southern Integrated Prescribed Fire Information System (SIPFIS) to disseminate these forecasts, along with measures of social vulnerability and health impacts, for emergency planning and preparedness purposes. Methods HiRes-X uses innovative modeling and machine learning approaches to identify areas most impacted by prescribed fires. Specifically, a regression tree model is built using meteorology and prescribed fire data from recent years to generate highly resolved burn activity forecasts. Burn emissions are calculated using satellite enhanced fuel maps, consumption estimates and region specific emission factors. Community Multiscale Air Quality model is used to compute the contribution of burn emissions to local and regional air quality. HiRes-X modeling system is integrated with measures of cardiorespiratory health impacts and social vulnerability to identify communities vulnerable to smoke from prescribed fires. SIPFIS dashboard provides map and chart visualization tools that are built using open source software, and it features interactive capabilities to respond dynamically to user selections. Results Analyses that can be performed with SIPFIS include comparisons of burn activity forecast to burn permit records or satellite fire detections, and air quality forecast to observations. SIPFIS can be used for planning prescribed burning operations to reduce human exposure to fire smoke. Conclusions HiRes-X forecasting system incorporates new elements that can facilitate dynamic management of prescribed fires in southeastern USA. SIPFIS dashboard offers various analysis features that can be used to take preventive actions for minimizing the air quality and health impacts while reaping the ecological and economic benefits of prescribed burning.