Modelling the development of vehicle fleets with alternative propulsion technologies

摘要

Significant improvements concerning energy efficiency andemissions have been achieved in the past. Nevertheless, thetransport sector lacks behind the successful developments inother sectors. Battery electric and hybrid vehicles are seen asa promising way to increase energy efficiency, reduce greenhousegas emissions and dependence on fossil fuels while stillmaintaining motorized individual mobility. Improvements inbattery technology, decreasing vehicle prices and the marketentrance of series-production vehicles nurture hopes, but thereremains uncertainty and scepticism too.The dynamic vehicle fleet model SERAPIS (Simulating theEmergence of Relevant Alternative Propulsion technologiesin the car and motorcycle fleet Including energy Supply) wasdeveloped by the Austrian Energy Agency in order to analyzesome critical aspects concerning market success of electric vehicles.SERAPIS relies on stock flow modelling and the SystemsDynamics software Vensim?. In each time step the numberof new vehicles entering the fleet is calculated by adding thenumber of vehicles which have to be replaced and the numberof vehicles stemming from vehicle fleet growth/decline. Amultinomial LOGIT model is used to calculate the propulsiontechnologies chosen for these new vehicles. SERAPIS differentiatesbetween electric, hybrid and internal combustion enginefor cars and electric and internal combustion for motorcycles.The calculation of electricity consumption and supply requirementsis included.SERAPIS has been used in a series of studies, e.g. a pre-feasibilitystudy for the Austrian Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovationand Technology, an evaluation of the Austrian EnergyStrategy or a study concerning visions of electricity consumptionuntil 2050 for the Austrian electricity industry. The aim ofthis paper is to present a technical model description and keyfindings from the aforementioned studies.