MODELLING OF BALTIC REGION ENERGY DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS

摘要

This paper presents results from the economic analysis of the long-term sustainable energy supply for the Baltic Region including the possible role of nuclear power. For this task, a multiregional mathematical model of energy systems development and operation up to 2050 for four countries in the Baltic Region (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland) was created. Analysis of energy sector future scenarios for the Region was performed in order to identify local energy development challenges and to determine which technologies could play an important role to overcome them. Applying the multiregional model permits the simultaneous optimization of the energy systems of all countries, allows determination of the global optimum, and facilitates the search for regional solutions by utilizing the strengths of local energy systems of different countries. This analysis presents technology development pathways as well as factors influencing economic attractiveness of power supply alternatives in the Region and reveals the main areas where attention has to be paid in future research. This work was carried out by an international team of experts from the Baltic Region in the context of the Euratom BRILLIANT project [1].