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RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING FOR EXTREME FLASH FLOODS IN WADI SAMAIL, OMAN

机译:阿曼WADI SAMAIL的极端洪水暴雨径流建模

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Flash flood forecasting is indispensable to construct efficient warning and mitigation of the increasingthreat of flash floods in wadi systems. Flash floods modeling in arid region is hindered by the lack ofappropriate hydrological models and data availability. Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model is appliedin Wadi Samail as a case study for the most extreme flash flood events in Oman (1,000 year return period).Detailed sensitivity analysis were conducted for RRI model parameters indicating that the channel andhillslope roughness coefficients are the most significant parameters followed by the soil characteristicsparameters such as soil depth, porosity and hydraulic conductivity. The most severe tropical cyclone in therecent history in Oman, Gonu-2007 and Phet-2010 were used to calibrate and validate the hydrologicalmodel. The results and the statistical analysis indicating that RRI model could efficiently simulate the extremeflash flood events in the arid wadi system. Where for model calibration, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE) and Percent bias (PBIAS) indices equal to 0.93 and -14.3, respectively, and for model validation NSEand PBIAS equal to 0.86 and -12.0, respectively. Further improvements in RRI model is recommended toinclude the transmission losses and groundwater processes for better representation of the wadi system.
机译:暴雨洪水预报对于构建有效的预警和减灾措施是必不可少的 旱谷系统中山洪暴发的威胁。缺乏干旱限制了干旱地区的山洪泛滥建模。 适当的水文模型和数据可用性。应用降雨-径流-淹没(RRI)模型 以瓦迪萨迈勒为例,以阿曼最严重的山洪暴发事件为例(1000年回归期)。 对RRI模型参数进行了详细的灵敏度分析,表明该信道和 坡度粗糙度系数是最重要的参数,其次是土壤特性 诸如土壤深度,孔隙度和水力传导率等参数。最强的热带气旋 使用阿曼最近的历史,Gonu-2007和Phet-2010来校准和验证水文 模型。结果和统计分析表明,RRI模型可以有效地模拟极端情况。 干旱的旱谷系统中发生的山洪暴发事件。在哪里进行模型校准,纳什·苏特克利夫效率 (NSE)和百分偏差(PBIAS)指数分别等于0.93和-14.3,用于模型验证NSE 和PBIAS分别等于0.86和-12.0。建议进一步改善RRI模型,以 包括输水损失和地下水过程,以更好地表示旱谷系统。

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