Prediction of Photovoltaic Time Series by Recurrent Neural Networks and Genetic Embedding

摘要

The need of reliable prediction algorithms of energy production is increasing due to the spread of smart solution for grid, plant and resource management. Recurrent neural networks are a viable solution for prediction but their performance is somewhat insufficient when the time series is generated by an underlying process that behaves in a complex manner. In this paper, a new combination of echo state network and genetic algorithms is employed in order to improve the prediction accuracy of photovoltaic time series. The genetic algorithm is used to embed past samples of the time series to be used for predicting a new one. It aims at a feature extraction in order to regularize data being fed into a neural network model, so that it is able to learn more robust and generalizable prediction models. The experimental tests prove that the proposed approach is suited to the application focused in this paper.