Comparison of Statistical-Based and Data-Driven-Based Scenario Generation of PV Power for Stochastic Day-Ahead Battery Scheduling

摘要

The day-ahead PV power generation scenarios, which represent the possible output of PV, have a significant impact on the scheduling of the available flexibility in a smart building. In this paper, a scenario generation approach for the day-ahead production of a single PV system is presented. The proposed method is important in the context of single buildings where the self-consumption has to be optimized. LASSO, which is a data-driven method, is used in order to select relevant quantiles to capture CDF. Moreover, a statistical-based scenario generation is applied in order to compare the performance of the proposed method. The generated scenarios for day-ahead PV generation are used in a stochastic problem to minimize the expected operational cost of a building and manage the flexibility, which is battery in this case study. Finally, the proposed method has been applied to a real PV installation on the rooftop of EnergyVille-1, a research institute. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method is able to capture the dynamics of the system even with low number of scenarios, which leads to reduce the computational time of stochastic problem.