Prediction of the Information Security State of the Protected Object Using Recurrent Correction

摘要

This article presents the modeling results of the ability to improve the accuracy of predicting the state of information security in the space of parameters of its threats. Information security of the protected object is considered as a dynamic system. Security threats to the protected object are used as the security system parameters most qualitatively and fully describing its behavior. The number of threats considered determines the dimension of the security state space. Based on the dynamic properties of changes in information security threats, the space region of the security system possible position at the moments of subsequent measurements of its state (a comprehensive security audit) is predicted. The corrected state of the information security system is considered to be the intersection of the area of subsequent measurement of the state of the system (integrated security audit) with the previously predicted area of the parameter space. Such a way to increase the accuracy of determining the state of a dynamic system in the space of its parameters can be called dynamic recurrent correction method. It is possible to use this method if the comprehensive security audit frequency is significantly higher than the frequency of monitoring changes in the dynamics of specific threats to information security. In addition, the data of the audit results and the errors of their receipt must be statistically independent with the results of monitoring changes in the dynamics of specific threats to information security. Improving the accuracy of the state of information security assessment in the space of the parameters of its threats can be used for various applications, including clarification of the communication channels characteristics, increasing the availability and efficiency of the telecommunications network, if it is an object of protection.