RISK MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE BREAKAGE AT RIVER CROSSINGS THROUGH QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE THREAT, VULNERABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

摘要

The floods of rivers and streams are among the threats that most frequently cause technological accidents. A quantitative analysis of the risk of breakage of pipelines in crossings with channels is presented. The proposed methodology evaluates the risk of rupture of the pipeline quantifying both the threat of being discovered and its vulnerability to hydrodynamic forces and those due to vortex shedding. Decision-making for risk mitigation is complemented by the evaluation of the consequences that breakage can produce in the environment and in the activity of the operator, that is, the assessment of the severity of the risk. To this end, the impact is quantified in terms of the extent of the damage caused and the economic losses due to the stoppage of production and the remediation costs. Finally, risk management is developed, which includes actions to mitigate the hazard and vulnerability, the priority of each of them and the implementation and monitoring plans. The application of the proposed methodology achieves the early identification and reduction of risk of breakage, knowledge of the state of the crosses, objectivity and reliability in the assignment of risk levels and the correct allocation of resources for mitigation.