New Approach using Optimization Method in Forecasting of the Own Technical Consumption in Distribution Power Grids

摘要

Nowadays operation of the power distribution networks is constrained by the currently active regulations but also by some other factors that are conditioned by its beneficiaries impact or by economical restrictions. In this work the second category of factors is tackled by identifying and forecasting in an optimal approach one of the most important terms in indirect control of the energy contour which is impacted by the own technical consumption.Own technical consumption in distribution grids is one of the most relevant performance indices related to the efficiency operation and sustainable development of power grids. For this reasons, it is considered as an essential monitoring parameter in regulatory and supervising governmental agencies in energy domain. At this level of importance the power distribution operators are willing to determine and to estimate the evolution of this parameter for their internal needs as a factor in decision making and for reporting to the regulatory organizations. The paper’s main goal is focused on development and analysis of this performance index forecasting. Two approaches are evaluated, namely the data series based linear regression model estimation and a novel multi-criteria optimization forecast method.In order to validate the proposed approaches, a case study is performed and the outcome results and analysis are presented. The proposed methodology and how the most relevant obtained results can be deployed and implemented by the industry are illustrated.