Conceptual Model of the Automated Decision-Making Process in Analysis of Emergency Situations on Railway Transport

摘要

The article substantiates the need of the use of intelligent computer technologies in order to automate the process of analysis of emergency situations on the railway transport. There were considered the analysis variants with automatic generation of recommendations for managers for ES elimination in order to reduce time to develop and to make an informed decision. It is shown that during the analysis of emergencies on the railway transport a particular importance has the development of methods for creating decision support systems (DSS) based on the modeling of transient technogenic emergencies as a complex dynamic process taking into account cause and effect relationships. There is substantiated the necessity of the implementation of a modular software product for the intellectual analysis of emergency situations and the development of operational recommendations for managers on their liquidation. There was made the tasks detalization performed after the receipt of information on the development of the situation. On the basis of detailed tasks, there was created a conceptual model of the decision-making process. Developed a new formalized description of the model for the task of recognizing the situation and making primary decisions. The model differs from the known ones in that it takes into account the information dependencies of the situation parameters that are available to the decision maker. This makes it possible to formalize the decisionmaking process for recognizing and predicting a situation.