Robustness Analysis of Design Phase Performance Predictors Using Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA)

摘要

The design phase is one of the important phases in any construction project. Leading cost and schedule performance indicators of design phase have been studied by some of the researchers, however, these variables' robustness has been studied rarely. The goal of this research is to discern between the robust and fragile cost overrun and schedule delay indicators of the design phase. Both extreme bounds analysis (EBA) methods including Learner's and Sala-i-Martin were implemented in this research. The Learner's method only considers the extreme bounds of the indicator's distribution while Sala-i-Martin focuses on the whole indicator's distribution. Results of this study revealed robust cost overrun and schedule delay indicators in the design phase. Project managers can use the findings of this research to prioritize the more robust indicators as higher priority and reduce required design modifications within the project process.