Flight Risk Quantitative Assessment Based on Extreme Values of Flight Parameters

摘要

Combining the extreme value theory and the multi-factor coupling system modelling, and considering the randomness of icing and pilot operation, the pilot-aircraft-environment simulation system was built. Monte Carlo simulation experiments were used to extract the extreme values of flight risk key parameters. The thick-tail characteristics of the parameter extreme and the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution law were verified. The flight risk criterion was defined and the flight risk probability was calculated. This method can provide theoretical support for the prediction and prevention of flight accidents.