Visual Analytics for Networked-Guarantee Loans Risk Management

摘要

Groups of enterprises can guarantee each other and form complex networks in order to try to obtain loans from banks. Monitoring the financial status of a network, and preventing or reducing systematic risk in case of a crisis, is an area of great concern for the regulatory commission and for the banks. We set the ultimate goal of developing a visual analytic approach and tool for risk dissolving and decision-making. We have consolidated four main analysis tasks conducted by financial experts: i) Multi-faceted Default Risk Visualization, whereby a hybrid representation is devised to predict the default risk and an interface developed to visualize key indicators; ii) Risk Guarantee Patterns Discovery. We follow the Shneiderman mantra guidance for designing interactive visualization applications, whereby an interactive risk guarantee community detection and a motif detection based risk guarantee pattern discovery approach are described; iii) Network Evolution and Retrospective, whereby animation is used to help users to understand the guarantee dynamic; iv) Risk Communication Analysis. The temporal diffusion path analysis can be useful for the government and banks to monitor the spread of the default status. It also provides insight for taking precautionary measures to prevent and dissolve systematic financial risk. We implement the system with case studies using real-world bank loan data. Two financial experts are consulted to endorse the developed tool. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first visual analytics tool developed to explore networked-guarantee loan risks in a systematic manner.