Evaluation of the fatigue limit state (FLS) for offshore wind turbine foundations is normally based on deterministic design approaches, where partial safety factors are used to account for load and resistance uncertainties. In this paper, the propagation of uncertainties related to structural, environmental and fatigue damage model parameters is evaluated by performing Monte Carlo fatigue simulations of a reference Gravity Based Foundation (GBF) supporting a 5 MW offshore wind turbine. A linear model for concrete fatigue damage is formulated based on the S-N approach, and fatigue structural reliability is evaluated using the FORM technique. Results indicate that the uncertainty related to wind turbulence intensity has the highest influence on fatigue loads during power production. Adopting a probabilistic damage model for concrete also increases the fatigue damage standard deviation by 60% and 85% for structures in water and in air, respectively. In addition, the assumption on Miner’s rule uncertainty has a large influence on the structural reliability. A reduction of this uncertainty from ΔCOV=0.40 to ΔCOV=0.30 could increase the annual reliability index by 22%.
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