Probabilistic Lateral Spread Evaluation for Long, Linear Infrastructure Using Performance-Based Reference Parameter Maps

摘要

The design of long, linear infrastructure such as pipelines, levees, roads, and canals can be challenging in areas of moderate to high seismicity due to numerous seismic and geologic hazards that can be encountered along proposed alignments. One of the most challenging earthquake-related hazards in the design of large infrastructure is liquefaction-induced lateral spread displacement. This paper presents a new simplified probabilistic approach to estimate lateral spread displacements at targeted return periods across large geographic areas using performance-based lateral spread displacement reference parameter maps and (if available) site-specific geotechnical information. The approach is demonstrated on a hypothetical pipeline extending from Rock Springs, Wyoming to West Bountiful, Utah in the United States. Advantages and limitations of the proposed approach are discussed. The results of the demonstrative calculation show how the approach can be used to identify areas where additional geotechnical investigations might be needed, and how probabilistic lateral spread displacements can be easily predicted along numerous proposed alignments of the pipeline once geotechnical subsurface investigation and ground surveys become available.