Uncertainty in Service Life Estimation and Probabilistic Service Life of Chloride Induced Steel Corrosion in Reinforced Concrete Structures

摘要

Service life estimates present the stakeholders with invaluable information that influences their decisions during the planning phase of a project. However, most service life estimates are a single, deterministic value despite recognition of the variance in the parameters used for the estimation. This paper presents the effect of, variance in some of the parameters that influence the initiation period of chloride induced corrosion in reinforced concrete structures, on the service life estimates. The effect of industry standard variances, including, variance allowed within ASTM test procedure and ACI tolerances, on the uncertainty in the corrosion initiation period was explored using freely available and industry accepted resources. The analysis helped identify the parameters that play a dominant role in the variance of the initiation period estimate. The paper highlights the value of this probabilistic information to the stake holders by providing brief examples of how it can affect the decisions on project specifications.