Prediction and analysis of aircraft failure rate based on SARIMA model

摘要

A large number of aviation equipment maintenance data exhibit seasonal behavior, such as aircraft failure rate. Consequently, seasonal forecasting problems are of considerable importance in aviation maintenance support. Aircraft failure rate is an important parameter of aviation equipment RMS (Reliability-Maintainability-Supportability). It is indispensable to scientifically predict the aircraft failure rate and to make scientific decisions on aviation maintenance to improve maintenance support capability. This paper proposes a seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model to solve the problem of aircraft failure rate forecasting. Then the mathematic model and modeling process of the SARIMA are introduced in detail. The application of SARIMA model in forecasting the aircraft failure rate is analyzed by examples. SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)₁₂ model was selected as the most suitable model to forecast of aircraft failure rate. And the forecasting results were analyzed and compared. The results demonstrate that the SARIMA model is feasible and effective for the prediction of aircraft failure rate.