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Knowledge Elicitation via Sequential Probabilistic Inference for High-Dimensional Prediction

机译:通过序贯概率推理进行高维预测的知识启发

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Prediction in a small-sized sample with a large number of covariates, the "small n, large p" problem, is challenging. This setting is encountered in multiple applications, such as in precision medicine, where obtaining additional data can be extremely costly or even impossible, and extensive research effort has recently been dedicated to finding principled solutions for accurate prediction. However, a valuable source of additional information, domain experts, has not yet been efficiently exploited. We formulate knowledge elicitation generally as a probabilistic inference process, where expert knowledge is sequentially queried to improve predictions. In the specific case of sparse linear regression, where we assume the expert has knowledge about the relevance of the covariates, or of values of the regression coefficients, we propose an algorithm and computational approximation for fast and efficient interaction, which sequentially identifies the most informative features on which to query expert knowledge. Evaluations of the proposed method in experiments with simulated and real users show improved prediction accuracy already with a small effort from the expert.
机译:在具有大量协变量的小型样本中进行“小n大p”问题的预测具有挑战性。在诸如精密医学之类的多种应用中会遇到这种设置,在这种应用中获取额外数据可能会非常昂贵,甚至无法实现,并且最近已进行了广泛的研究工作,以找到用于精确预测的原则性解决方案。但是,尚未有效利用领域专家的其他信息的宝贵资源。我们通常将知识激发公式化为一个概率推理过程,在此过程中顺序查询专家知识以改善预测。在稀疏线性回归的特定情况下,我们假设专家对协变量或回归系数的相关性有所了解,我们提出了一种用于快速有效交互的算法和计算近似值,该算法和计算近似值可顺序地识别出最有用的信息。查询专家知识的功能。在模拟用户和真实用户的实验中对拟议方法的评估表明,专家的努力已经提高了预测精度。

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