Effects of Climate Change on the Stream Flows in Upper Middle Fork Feather River Watershed and on the Groundwater Stresses in Sierra Valley Aquifer Based on Long-Term Dynamical Downscaling

摘要

Watershed Environmental Hydrology Hydro-Climate Model (WEHY-HCM) (Kavvas et al, 2012; Kure et al, 2012) was used to simulate the surface flows of the Upper Middle Fork (UMF) watershed under different climate conditions. Long-term historical atmospheric conditions over the Middle Fork Feather River Basin were reconstructed for the 63-year period between October 1950 and September 2013 by the dynamical downscaling of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data (Kistler et al, 2001). Future atmospheric conditions were also simulated by dynamically downscaling future climate projections during the 21st century from two GCMs (CCSM3 and ECHAM5) based on four SRES future climate scenarios. The downscaled atmospheric data were used as the inputs into a physically-based hydrologic model of the WEHY-HCM, to simulate stream flows at the Upper Middle Fork watershed. The data were also used with DWR's physically based groundwater and root zone model, IWFM (Dogrul, 2014), to simulate groundwater stresses in the Sierra Valley Aquifer of Northern California.