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SEISMIC QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT OF PROCESS PLANTS THROUGH MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS

机译:通过蒙特卡洛模拟对过程植物进行地震定量风险评估

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This paper describes the application of Monte Carlo method for the quantitative seismic risk assessment (QSRA) of process plants. Starting from the seismic hazard curve of the site where the plant is located, the possible chains of accidents are modelled using a sequence of propagation levels in which Level 0 is represented by the components directly damaged by the earthquake whereas the subsequent Levels represent the resulting consequence propagation. In greater detail all units damaged by energy and materials releases from level 0 units are included in level 1 and so forth, so that referring to process units belonging to a generic i-th Level, they are damaged by level (i-1) units and damage units of level (i+1). The sequence of levels represents the damage propagation across the plant through any multiple interacting sequences of accidents. For each unit a damage (DM) - loss of containment (LOC) matrix is generated allowing to estimate the amount of energy and material releases as well as resulting physical effects based on which the scenario at i-th level is generated. The process stops when no further damage propagation is allowed.
机译:本文介绍了蒙特卡罗方法在过程工厂定量地震风险评估(QSRA)中的应用。从工厂所在地的地震危险曲线开始,使用一系列传播级别对可能的事故链进行建模,其中传播级别0由地震直接破坏的分量表示,而后续传播级别则表示结果传播。更详细地讲,所有因级别0的能量和材料释放而损坏的单元都包含在级别1中,依此类推,因此,对于属于通用i级的处理单元,它们被级别(i-1)损坏。和等级(i + 1)的伤害单位。等级序列代表了通过任何多个相互作用的事故序列在整个植物中传播的危害。对于每个单元,都会生成一个损坏(DM)-密闭性损失(LOC)矩阵,从而可以估算能量和材料的释放量以及由此产生的物理效应,并以此为基础生成第i级情景。当不允许进一步的损害传播时,该过程将停止。

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