Transformer paper condition assessment using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System model

摘要

This paper presents the possibility of using Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for Power Transformer Paper Condition Assessment. The dielectric characteristics, dissolved gasses, and furan of 108 running transformers is collected. The 2-furaldehyde (2FAL) data is transformed to Degree of Polymerization (DP), and then statistically analysed to get independent variables as the predictor for the transformer paper condition assessment. CO and CO2 are well known as one of the product of cellulose degradation, while interfacial tension, acidity, and color from the oil are statistically correlated with furan. ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) and Multiple Regression (MR) model is built based on the previous statistical analysis, and then the result is evaluated and compared, resulting in better accuracy of ANFIS model. Three different evaluation criteria MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) calculated from ANFIS prediction are lower than those from MR model, with the MAPE of ANFIS model is 15.38%.