Comparing energy systems in California and Sweden: A pilot-study to further develop a methodology for prediction of overall demand response potential in Northern Europe

摘要

The share of electricity generation from renewable resources (e.g. wind and solar) is increasing, as a consequence of environmental targets, to avoid the imminent risks of climate change. Renewable generation is less predictable and controllable than conventional generation, which introduces new challenges for the energy system as a whole. Consequently, demand side management is gaining increased attention for its conceivable potential of providing needed operational flexibility to the energy system. However, little is still known about the size, accessibility and cost of using demand side flexibility on a broader scale. To attain better knowledge, this paper proposes a conceptual framework for how a forecasting tool, previously developed for California, could be adapted in a Swedish demand response potential study. This tool would enable prediction of the demand response potential on a system wide scale. The tool can then be used by researchers and policy makers in order to understand the size of the resource, prioritize research needs and to support policymaking.