Uncertainty Evaluation for the Realistic Safety Analysis Methodology of RIA by Utilizing Experimental Results

摘要

An audit calculation methodology for the safety analysis of reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) in a PWR based on the realistic approach is under developing in KINS In this paper important uncertainty parameters to the rod performance were described, and the validity of those parameters was assessed by utilizing the CABRI and NSRR experimental results. Sensitivity study has been carried out to identify the parameters by changing fuel burnup, injected energy and full-width half maximum (FWHM) of given RIA power pulses. FRAPCON-3.5 and FRAPTRAN-1.5 fuel performance code were utilized. Non-parametric order statistics was used for the uncertainty quantification, and 124 inputs on each experimental case were produced by simple random sampling technique. Analysis results showed that the assessed fuel performance uncertainties such as the fuel enthalpy, fission gas release and clad plastic hoop strain could not bound some experimental results. This means that the currently considered uncertainty range, particularly for the peak power, is not enough to cover the fuel performance uncertainty within a sufficient probability and confidence level.