Design Evolution and AHP-based Historiography of Lifting Reentry Vehicle Space Programs

摘要

The term "Historiography" is defined as the writing of history based on the critical examination of sources. In the context of space access systems, a considerable body of literature has been published addressing the history of lifting-reentry vehicle(LRV) research. Many technical papers and books have surveyed legacy research case studies, technology development projects and vehicle development programs to document the evolution of hypersonic vehicle design knowledge gained from the early 1950s onwards. However, these accounts tend to be subjective and qualitative in their discussion of the significance and level of progress made. Even though the information addressed in these surveys is considered crucial, it may lack qualitative or quantitative organization for consistently measuring the contribution of an individual program. The goal of this study is to provide an anatomy aimed at addressing and quantifying the contribution of legacy programs towards the evolution of the hypersonic knowledge base. This paper applies quantified analysis to legacy lifting-reentry vehicle programs, aimed at comprehensively capturing the evolution of LRV hypersonic knowledge base. Beginning with an overview of literature surveys focusing on hypersonic research programs, a comprehensive list of LRV programs, starting from the 1933 Silvervogel to the 2015 Dream Chaser, is assembled. These case-studies are assessed on the basis of contribution made towards major hypersonic disciplines. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to develop an analytical model, to quantify and measure the strength and weakness of primary disciplines for every case-study. Sixty national and international case-studies are evaluated based on one system-level and five discipline-based criteria addressing aerothermodynam-ics, structure & materials, propulsion, thermal, and sub-system contributions. The AHP model allows a comparative assessment among the case-studies based on quantitative results, which identify a case-studys value and contribution for the growth of the primary disciplines, and the evolution of the overall hypersonic knowledge base. This analysis is further supported by an overview of the case-studies accessed, providing a brief description of LRV research history. An evolutionary pattern among the case-studies is recognized, demonstrating common aspects and influences of major programs throughout history.