Demand forecasting and development of diffusion model for carbon dioxide capture and storage technology

摘要

Due to the increase interest in climate change, many countries make an agree ment for reducing greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions. Korean government also makes a goal to reduce GHG emissions by 37% from business-as-usual levels until 2030, and submits their target of reducing GHG emissions to the United Nations framework convention on climate change in June, 2015. However, cur rent renewable energy policies and demand-side management in Korea are no t enough to accomplish GHG reduction target. Moreover, if Korean government focuses on GHG reduction target, it is hard to achieve economic growth target. Under the current circumstances, the carbon dioxide capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies are considered as a possible alternative which could achieve both economic growth and GHG reduction target. Some previous rese arches forecast demand of CCS technologies with a simple assumption, but t hey do not consider competitive situation in renewable energy market. Because CCS technologies could compete existing renewable energies, this study considers competitive situation and forecasts future demand of CCS technologies in competitive market. In addition, this study proposes new diffusion mode I which includes competitive market situation and measures technological competitiveness of CCS technologies. Based on the results of this study, we can provide the policy directions for CCS technologies.