Risk management strategy and model for photovoltaic suppliers based on bilateral contracts

摘要

Grid-connected photovoltaic generation is developing rapidly throughout the world and photovoltaic suppliers have begun to participate in electricity market in some developed countries. This paper presents a bilateral contract model for photovoltaic power and provides trading strategy for photovoltaic suppliers to allocate electricity between contract market and spot market. Autoregressive moving average model and autoregressive model are used to simulate photovoltaic output and spot price series. Using the risk management theory in financial research field for reference, a mean - variance optimal trading portfolio model for photovoltaic suppliers is built. Based on the proposed model, optimal electricity allocation ratio is calculated. The results of a case study show that the purposed model and trading strategy can help photovoltaic suppliers manage their financial risk and obtain maximum profit utility in electricity market.