Forecast and scenario simulation analysis of power demand considering a variety of external environmental factors

摘要

External factors such as technology, economy and policy have great influence on power demand. The purpose of this paper is to ensure power demand forecast still has time-effectiveness when the external environment change greatly, by quantifying the consideration of external environment factors; at the same time, to quantitatively study the influence that different external environmental factors put on power demand through scenario analysis. Firstly, three single forecasting models are selected, and the weight of the individual model in the combination model is determined by the improved PSO algorithm and thus the basic forecasting result is obtained. After that, three external factors are quantitatively presented as correction coefficients. Finally, a case study based on the power demand data of Tianjin is carried out. It turns out that the model presented in this paper has reached the advanced level of the same kind of models.