Forecasting the load of demand and supply of Electricity in India

摘要

Electrical Energy is one of the most fundamental parts of our universe. Energy has come to be known as a `strategic commodity' and any uncertainty about its supply can threaten the functioning of the economy, particularly in developing economies. Achieving Electric energy security in this strategic sense is of fundamental importance not only to India's economic growth but also for the human development objectives that aim at alleviation of poverty and unemployment and meeting the Millennium Development Goals Holistic planning for achieving these objectives requires quality energy statistics that is able to address the issues related to energy demand, energy supply and environmental effects of energy growth. In this paper, the Garch model is used to determine the market volatility in the demand and supply chains of electricity in Nigeria for 36 years, i.e. from 1970 to 2005 from the historic data obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics. The Harvey logistic model is used to predict the demand and supply of electricity in the country from 2005 to 2026.