On the Possibility of an Event

摘要

This paper proposes a computational methodology for determining the possibility of a real-world event. It is argued that the notion of possibility for an event is context dependent, where the context of the event comprises prerequisites and/or constraints. Prerequisites enable occurrence of the event, and constraints inhibit its occurrence. It is proposed to compute the possibility of an event as a function of the probabilities that the prerequisites are satisfied and/or the constraints are not satisfied, where the prescribed functions employ the well-known logic of possibility theory. The proposed method is thus a composite of probability and possibility theories.