Deep Learning for solar power forecasting — An approach using AutoEncoder and LSTM Neural Networks

摘要

Power forecasting of renewable energy power plants is a very active research field, as reliable information about the future power generation allow for a safe operation of the power grid and helps to minimize the operational costs of these energy sources. Deep Learning algorithms have shown to be very powerful in forecasting tasks, such as economic time series or speech recognition. Up to now, Deep Learning algorithms have only been applied sparsely for forecasting renewable energy power plants. By using different Deep Learning and Artificial Neural Network algorithms, such as Deep Belief Networks, AutoEncoder, and LSTM, we introduce these powerful algorithms in the field of renewable energy power forecasting. In our experiments, we used combinations of these algorithms to show their forecast strength compared to a standard MLP and a physical forecasting model in the forecasting the energy output of 21 solar power plants. Our results using Deep Learning algorithms show a superior forecasting performance compared to Artificial Neural Networks as well as other reference models such as physical models.