Modeling and analyzing the breakdown process

摘要

An Operation Dependent Environment Change (ODEC) model has been proposed to model the breakdown process of a real production line. The model allows for an individual machine's breakdown rates to alternate between low and high when the machine is operational. The ODEC model is natural and allows for the times between breakdowns to be positively auto-correlated, which is what exhibits in the data from an engine production line of a major UK automotive manufacturer. A Markov-modulated Poisson Process with two hidden Markov states (MMPP2) method has been proposed to estimate the transition rates. This enables us to solve the performance measure of the production line, i.e. the throughput, analytically using a Markovian model.