Power grid vulnerability assessment against wildfires using probabilistic progression estimation model

摘要

Wildfires are natural or manmade disaster events that occur in forested and grassland ecosystems. Power transmission lines passing through these areas are in particular vulnerable to wildfires. The heat generated by the fire can increase the surface temperature of the overhead conductors in its vicinity. Extreme surface temperatures can lead to conductor annealing and permanent loss of tensile strength. To avoid this, the thermal rating of the at-risk lines should be dynamically adjusted, so that reduced loading of the line counteract the heat gained from the fire. However, this can affect the flow of power and dispatch of the generation units. The goal of this paper is to analyze the impact of a wildfire on the operation of a power grid. Presence of wind has a major effect on the behavior of the fire and its impact on the line. Higher winds cool down the conductor through convective heat transfer, but at the same time, move the fire front closer to the line, leading to exposure to more heat. Due to the randomness in wind speed and direction, the study presented here is based on probabilistic optimal power flow.