Chapter 65 Container Throughput Time Series Forecasting Using a Hybrid Approach

摘要

This paper proposed a novel two-stage hybrid container throughput forecasting model. Time series in reality exhibits both linear and nonlinear characteristics and individual models are not able to describe the two features simultaneously. Therefore, we combine linear model SARIMA (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average) and nonlinear model ANN (artificial neural network). In order to break through the limitations of traditional hybrid models, based on the identified parameters of SARIMA in first stage, the structures of several ANN in second stage could be decided. Finally, we validate the proposed hybrid model 5 performs best with case study in Shanghai port.