Chasing Black Swans: Climate Change - Risk Identification Adaptation and Resilience

摘要

ICIA is used to develop robust forward-thinking risk assessments from solid, defensible and repeatable science based on first principles. ICIA uses CARViS to combine the appropriate process models and future climate scenarios, along with change detection methodology, to identify and evaluate future vulnerabilities depending on the asset or environmental resource of interest. It has been used to evaluate management options and minimize the environmental, social, and business risks associated with resource development due to climate change. It was developed to support resource development, permitting, restoration, rehabilitation, and reclamation applications to identify climate vulnerabilities, mitigate the effects of climate change and increase climate resilience. ICIA supports decision-making throughout all phases of resource development including ESHIA, EISs, wildlife (terrestrial, marine and aquatic) impacts, evaluating available resources, ecosystem services (e.g., water), stakeholder involvement, aging infrastructure and site closure. It is effective for comparing current risks with projected future risks, and also for determining tipping points - the threshold at which currently acceptable risks become unacceptable risks. ICIA is valuable for sensitivity and scenario analyses, and for comparing the potential impacts and costs/benefits of mitigation strategies. By using an integrated climate impact assessment tool, potential Black Swans can be identified.