Simulation of auto design performance in the market to meet fuel efficiency standards

摘要

This research effort demonstrates an analysis and simulation methodology a manufacturer could employ to determine the recommended vehicle architecture that maximizes profit, while complying with government corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. We scope our target system to a Jeep multipurpose vehicle (MPV) segment by Fiat Chrysler, which is a crucial part of the manufacturer's product portfolio. We utilize multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) using the criteria of cost, acceptance, effectiveness, fuel type, and electrical factor to rank many possible fuel efficient technology configurations. Employing discrete event simulation, a select group of configurations are analyzed for profitability based upon market acceptance and economic performance. The discrete event simulation studies the expected profit distribution with variability in market acceptance and cost categories of production, research and development, warranty, and recall. This variability is treated as a risk and coupled with profit level and technology effectiveness lead to a final recommendation.