Statistical error analysis of household load profile for medium voltage grid state estimation

摘要

The paper comprises a detailed analysis of the error ranges of two commonly proposed load estimation methods for household loads, based on statistics. Firstly, a household load profile model is built taking individual user preference into account. To analyze the error range, it is divided into system error (representing proportion factors) and random error (representing the diversity of stochastic loads and measurement inaccuracies). For both estimation methods, two kinds of bounds are used to evaluate the error range, with central limit theorem. Finally, comparisons between different errors are made using field data from a Dutch utility.