Does monetary policy stabilize the confidence as well as output after Crisis?—An empirical study based on SVAR model

摘要

In this paper, a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is established for the study of the stability of China's economic growth and market confidence in response to the moderately loose monetary policy since the economic crisis. The empirical research using the monthly data from December 2007 to August 2012 shows: after the economic crisis, China's monetary policy has a positive effect on stabilization of market confidence as well as economic growth. The positive effect of the credit channel to economic growth is higher than that of the monetary channel and the government debt bond channel. And the positive effects on stabilizing the market confidence through the monetary channel is not obvious, while there is a strong stimulus through credit channel in the short term, but the positive effects will fade quickly.