A CONCEPTUAL RISK TOOL FOR ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AN ISLAND NATION'S CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

摘要

Preparing for the future natural hazards due to climate change may seem unmanageable, but it has gained a lot of effort and attention in this last decade. Forecasting the scale and risk of critical infrastructure damage from potential natural hazards, resulting from climate change, is a critical undertaking. This paper is a continuation of our research which seeks to adopt the framework of the WorldRisklndex Report to the Philippines. According to the 2014 World Risk Index Report, the Philippines has moved up in rankings from the third most to the second most at risk nation from an extreme natural disaster. This paper develops a conceptual tool that can potentially support and improve decision making of a variety of decisions, such as: Insurance, contingency planning, supply chain development, housing projects, etc. The conceptual tool will adopt the WorldRisklndex Report's scoring framework using simulated inputs specific to the regions of the Philippines and will yield calculated outputs for critical infrastructure decisions. These outputs for decision making could influence: improved contingency planning, micro-insurance coverage, current infrastructure re-evaluation, future infrastructure development, and resource allocation that incorporates risk interdependencies between the regions of the Philippines.