Analytical Model of the Effect of Tangent Length between Vertical Curves on Train Derailments

摘要

Derailment is one of the most hazardous occurrences affecting the safety of railroads vehicles that must be prevented. The potential threat of derailment could especially be significant when length of tangent between vertical curves isn't long as much as enough. Although the length of tangent between vertical curves could be relevant to railway safety, no research had been conducted to study its effect on derailment risk. The primary objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of tangent length between vertical curves on derailment. This study consisted of three major components: (1) review of 1999-2008 derailment reports in Iran, (2) a regression analysis, and (3) recommendation model for estimating the probability of derailment, based on the tangent length between vertical curves and the number of cars derailing. The most important finding from this research is the statistical significance of tangent length between vertical curves on railway safety. Analysis confirmed that the shorter length of tangent between vertical curves result the more cars to be derailed.