Medium and long term load forecasting method for distribution network with high penetration DGs

摘要

Middle and long term load forecasting is the essential basis for planning of distribution network. With high penetration DGs (distributed generation) integrated into network, the net load demand of HV/MV network become more complicated, load forecasting encounters greater challenge than ever. Volatility and intermittency of wind and solar power has greatly influenced the load characteristics. A new middle and long term load forecasting method for distribution network with DGs is proposed in this paper, which concerns time-varying characteristic of DG output power. Firstly, we get the conventional spatial load forecasting results. Then, we get yearly time-varying curves of DG output using Monte Carlo simulation. Lastly, superposing time-varying curves of conventional load and DGs, we can get the net-load forecasting result for distribution network, which is more accurate than ever.