Risks and Impact Assessment for Deepwater and Ultra-Deepwater Gulf of Mexico Resources

摘要

Recent natural and anthropogenic events, such as Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and the Deepwater Horizonoil spill, have identified significant gaps in our ability to predict risks associated with offshore hydrocarbonproduction as well as our capabilities to respond to deleterious events of varying scope, magnitude,and duration. As offshore hydrocarbon development in the Gulf of Mexico continues to push into newterritory, there is a need to develop computational tools that enable the rapid prediction of outcomesassociated with unexpected hydrocarbon release events from deepwater and ultra-deepwater systems inthe Gulf of Mexico. To date, no comprehensive system-wide tool exists that can simulate the complexitiesof engineered-natural systems and provide the baseline data that is required to drive the simulations.To address this gap, we are developing the Gulf of Mexico Integrated Assessment Model (GOM IAM),the first coordinated platform that will allow for independent, rapid-response, and science based predictionsproviding the capabilities to assess risks and potential impacts associated with deep and ultra-deepwater drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. This predictive model and its analyses allow for the assessment andquantification of risks and environmental impacts from deepwater and ultra-deepwater oil and gas drillingand production, as well as provide a robust tool and database that can provide crucial informationnecessary for the response and recovery following future loss of control events. Once the GOM IAM isdeveloped, it can be utilize to: if) identify potential risks; ii) identify technology gaps, iii) improve ourunderstanding of the degree of uncertainty relative to key systems and interactions associated with deepand ultra-deep water offshore hydrocarbon development to promote safer development and operations,and iv) run scenarios to serve as a baseline rapid response tool for any future oil spill events.