Improving Earned Value Forecasting through Integration with Risk Analysis and Scope Change Management

摘要

Cost overruns on construction projects have long been an issue for owners. Accurate prediction of completed project costs allows owners to better plan for the eventualities, such as obtaining approval for a budget increase, establishing financial reserves, or taking steps to control the overrun. Earned value techniques are commonly used for such forecasting. This approach invariably utilizes past performance indices and/or predicted future performance indices to calculate the cost at completion. What is often neglected from the analysis is how risk events, pending change orders, and potential claims will impact that cost. Risk analysis techniques are commonly used to quantify uncertainty in project costs at the outset of the project to develop a contingency fund. This process can be extended into the construction phase of a project to help predict final cost. This study demonstrates how traditional earned value forecasting techniques can be integrated with risk analysis techniques to improve an owner's ability to predict and mitigate cost overruns.