System-level Environmental and Operational Assessment of Future Aviation Concepts and Technologies

摘要

In order to address integrated system-level environmental and operational assessment of future concepts and technologies, the following are key factors: (1) system-level environmental assessment requires an overall understanding of key system elements and feedbacks; (2) management of a portfolio of new operational concepts and technologies should be supported by an informed understanding of the factors that influence environmental impact; (3) new operational concepts and technologies may have different relative environmental impacts depending on how major factors evolve in the future; (4) major determinants of environmental impact are demand level/structure, operational improvements, engine/airframe technology, and use of alternative fuels; (5) a key feedback is the effect on demand level/structure of fuel price, technology cost, and other factors; and (6) the most direct linkage of new operational concepts and technologies to environmental impact is through their effects on demand level/structure and excess travel time (delay). We have established and exercised a quantitative simulation capability that enables integrated estimation of these environmental, demand, and delay effects. For initial results, we have used rough aggregate estimates of the effects of new concepts and technologies on airspace and airport capacities. These quantitative results have been obtained by linking the National Airspace System (NAS) simulation platforms Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool (FACET) and National Airspace System (NAS) Performance Analysis Capability (NASPAC; currently System-Wide Analysis Capability or SWAC) to environmental models. Initial results show that: (1) analysis of the environmental impacts of new operational concepts and technologies can be directly coupled with key effectiveness metrics related to feasible throughput and delay, (2) it is feasible to make a large number of estimates for different demand and capacity assumptions, and to develop the trade space that includes multiple environmental metrics; and (3) other factors important to environmental impacts (demand structure, fleet composition, technology insertion, and alternative fuels) are included in the approach.