Analyzing the Business Case and Economic Viability of Unmanned Aircraft within the Nation's Airspace

摘要

The Interagency Portfolio and Systems Analysis (IPSA) Division of the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) supported by the National Aeronautics & Space Agency Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate is responsible for supporting the partnerships necessary to implement the Next Generation Air Traffic System (NextGen). Consequently, the IPSA examines potential new technologies that will exist in the National Airspace System (NAS), and evaluates their economic and technological efficiency and practicality in the context of NextGen. As mandated by Congress, the eventual introduction of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) into the NAS presents a unique opportunity for the civilian aviation industry. Leveraging emerging technologies and new policies set by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), future civilian UAS operators will have the opportunity to create significant value through new business models and operating methods. It is important for policymakers to understand the potential scale and source of value creation so that they can create appropriate rules to accommodate UAS while still meeting the needs of other, existing aviation stakeholders. Using a simple discounted cash flow model, this paper attempts to estimate the level of value creation for three different UAS applications.