A Step toward Decoding the Causes of El Nino/La Nina Events

摘要

Building on a recently found association of orbital forcings of the Earth and Moon with hydrological conditions on Earth, as inferred from the analysis of long-term precipitation data in California, this paper attempts to show the causes and predictability of El Nino/La Nina events. Temporal and spatial orbital oscillations of the Earth and Moon for the 1951 to 2012 period are characterized using the Moon and Earth's orbital geometries, which are based on proxy records obtained from the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA.) The El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation Index (Nino 3.4) for the same historical period is analyzed in relation to the observed orbital oscillations of the Earth and Moon. The analysis shows evident association between these oscillations and Nino 3.4 index. This paper presents the results of this analysis and point to further validation studies using real time data in the coming years. It also attempts to indicate the various potential applications of this novel association.