Insights from the SM2A pilot study towards quantification of a change of plant safety margin after a hypothetical power up-rate

摘要

During recent years, many nuclear power plants underwent significant modifications, e.g. power up-rating. While compliance with all the deterministic acceptance criteria must be shown during the licensing process, the larger core inventory and the facts that the plant response might get-closer to the limits after a power up-rate, suggest an increase of the core damage frequency (CDF) and other possible risk indicators. Hence, a framework to quantitatively assess a change in plant safety margin becomes very desirable. The Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI) mandated the Safety Margin Action Plan expert group (SMAP) to develop a framework for the assessment of such changes to safety margin. This framework combines PSA and the analytical techniques developed in BEPU. CSNI then mandated the SM2A expert group to especially explore the practicability of the SMAP framework. This pilot study was completed end of 2010. An increase of the (conditional) probability of exceedance for a surrogate acceptance limit (PCT) indicating core damage was successfully evaluated for the selected sequences from several initiating event trees, and it was found that only a restricted number of sequences need to be analyzed. The impact of power up-rate could also be assessed for scenarios where no violation of the surrogate criterion was observed. The modeling of human actions was found to be of particular importance as the sequences related to scenarios including a time delay for a recovery action or for a repair correspond to the more visible risk increase.