The Simulation of Land Distribution Based on Strategy of Urban Space Development in Nanjing

摘要

Due to lack of flexibility, traditional urban planning method is difficult to make proper and timely response to the future scenario of urban development. The distinction that planning objective deviate from the fact becomes more acute In attempt to overcome this problem, this paper proposes a framework for using scenario planning based on strategy of urban space development to simulate land allocation process. The framework consists of three steps: land evaluation, scenario development, scenario simulation. Taking Nanjing City as an example, this study discusses the technical process of this method by exploring the spatial analysis function of GIS. Firstly, land suitability evaluation is undertaken with land assessment. Secondly, the key uncertainties and their driving forces affecting future land-use are identified, the combinations of driver states are used to build scenarios and participate in land allocation model to simulate the future plans. Finally, three land-use layout schemes are generated based on land evaluation and scenario development. The result indicates that the method can seek clues from strategy of urban space development, reflect land allocation scenario rapidly under spatial development strategies, it provides decision support for future land layout and policy.