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An agent-based simulation of a Tuberculosis epidemic: Understanding the timing of transmission

机译:基于代理的结核疫情模拟:了解传输的时机

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Tuberculosis (TB) transmission is a key factor for disease-control policy, but the timing and distribution of transmission and the role of social contacts remain obscure. We develop an agent-based simulation of a TB epidemic in a single population, and consider a hierarchically structured contact network in three levels, typical of airborne diseases. The parameters are adopted from the literature, and the model is calibrated to a setting of high TB incidence. We model the dynamics of transmission at the individual level, and study the timing of secondary infections from a single source throughout the duration of the disease. We compare the patterns of transmission among different networks and discuss implications. Sensitivity analysis of outputs indicates the robustness of the results to variations in the parameter values.
机译:结核病(TB)传播是疾病控制政策的关键因素,但传播的时序和分配和社会接触的作用仍然模糊不清。我们在单个人口中制定基于代理的TB流行病模拟,并考虑三个层次的分层结构化联系网络,典型的空气疾病。从文献中采用参数,该模型被校准到高结核病入射的设定。我们在各个级别模拟传输的动态,并在整个疾病期间研究来自单一来源的二次感染的时间。我们比较不同网络之间的传输模式并讨论影响。输出的灵敏度分析表示结果对参数值的变化的稳健性。

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