A novel dynamic fault tree analysis method

摘要

Dynamic fault tree analysis method can be used to model and analyze reliability of complex engineering systems with dynamic failure characteristics. By incorporating the Bayesian Networks into dynamic fault tree method can alleviate the state space explosion problem involving in the latter. Based on Bayesian networks, a novel dynamic fault tree analysis method under fuzzy numbers is presented in this paper. The determination of probability distribution under fuzzy numbers for output variable of dynamic logic gate is introduced. The calculation of fuzzy failure probability of a system is also put forward. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of this method.