Study on real-time reliability evaluation and prediction of machining center based on expert modeler

摘要

A mixed reliability evaluation and prediction method which is particularly suitable for the machining center was proposed in this study, considering the poor adaptability of the current reliability evaluation and prediction method. Using fault occurrence time as modeling parameter and based on the empirical modeling technique, this method evaluates the realtime reliability of the machining center. With the most appropriate methods and the optimum modeling parameters in the modeler selected according to the error minimum principle, the expert modeler method was applied to implement subsequent prediction. Consequently, the limitations of the previous single prediction methods were overcome while the robustness and accuracy of prediction were enhanced. To evaluate the method proposed in this study, a specific machining center was taken as an example. It was found that the conclusions obtained from the real-time reliability evaluation and prediction method were agreed reasonably well with the consequences in the actual working condition with high accuracy.